El Welily vs El Sherbini: 9,000 shots
In this piece, we take a deep dive into the contest which has defined the women’s World Tour over the past half decade: Raneem El Welily vs. Nour El Sherbini. Between May 2016 and June 2020 – when El Welily retired – the two Alexandrians shared the World Number 1 spot for 50 consecutive months, and no other player has won the World Championships since we were all talking about selfies, ice-bucket challenges, and the picture that broke the internet. When El Welily bowed out, the tour lost not only a champion, but a rivalry. Here, we take a look at every PSA match El Welily and El Sherbini played against each other from 2017 onwards – the final 11 times they met on tour – and pick out some data-driven observations that caught our eye.
Data source: All 11* of Raneem El Welily and Nour El Sherbini’s PSA encounters 2017-2020 on SquashTV. 8,927 shots. 866 points. 43 games. 11 matches. 11 finals. 65,000 data points.
We tag each shot for: distance from side wall, distance from back wall, whether it was a volley or groundstroke, played soft or hard, played on the rebound from the back wall or not, played as a boast or not, and played cross court or down the line, as well as totting up Winners, Errors and rally count.
In this piece we show:
El Welily dominated the mid-court, but El Sherbini’s ability to attack from deep made amends.
El Welily hit more Winners and Errors, but El Sherbini was more efficient in her attacks from the backhand mid-court.
From mid-court, El Sherbini hit cross-court, while El Welily was more inclined to take the ball in down the line.
El Welily kept her options open when playing shots from the front left; El Sherbini chose to hit her way out.
The notion that El Sherbini can struggle under physical pressure is not supported by the data analysed here.
From the Windy City Open in 2017 to the Windy City Open in 2020
Result-based information
It serves first of all to note that the outcomes of these final 11 encounters were evenly split: El Sherbini won 6, El Welily won 5. Of the 43 games contested, El Sherbini won 24 to El Welily’s 19. However, more informative than Result is to consider the percentage of points won by each player in any given match. While Match Winner gives us one piece of information, and Games Won gives us between three and five, Points Won – although less significant than result – allows us to judge a match by up to 100 observations.
Indicative of how closely matched this pair were, from 2017 onwards El Sherbini won 400 points to El Welily’s 397
Charting the percentage of points won in the El Sherbini El Welily rivalry is indeed revealing. By Result (above left), the final four matches were the most closely fought, with three 5-gamers and no victories to love. But as seen in the right hand chart above, they included the two most uneven matches in terms of percentage of points won over the past four years. At the Black Ball Open, El Welily won three Games comfortably (to 1, 2, and 5), despite the 3-2 margin. And viewers will remember how one-sided the 2019 World Championships Final was: El Sherbini began the match with a run of 8 points from which El Welily never recovered, losing Games to 4, 5, and 6.
Shot-based information
While percentage of points won often gives a better indication of the closeness of a match than the Result, it doesn’t tell us anything about the style of play. For that, we need to turn to performance metrics: beginning with Winners and Errors.
The chart below compares the number of Winning shots (Winners and opponent’s Forced Errors) with the number of Losing shots (Unforced Errors) hit by El Welily and El Sherbini in their matches since 2017. The dots representing El Welily cluster towards the top right of the chart, indicating a high number of both Winners (horizontal axis) and Errors (vertical axis) hit per Game. El Sherbini, by contrast, tended to hit slightly fewer Winners than El Welily, but coupled this with significantly fewer Unforced Errors, and clusters accordingly towards the bottom left of the chart. A high number of Winners and Errors is often indicative of an aggressive, proactive style of play, while fewer Winners and Errors points to a more reactive approach. It’s testament to the all-guns-blazing squash Egypt has produced of late that the usually belligerent El Sherbini appears a defensive player by comparison with El Welily.
In their matches since 2017, El Welily hit 278 Winning Shots to El Sherbini’s 244, but hit 113 Unforced Errors to El Sherbini’s 84
The chart helps show El Sherbini’s dominance in the 2016-17 World Championship final: she hit an average of 6.4 Winning shots per Game, and just three Unforced Errors in three Games. While the difference between El Welily’s 3-0 victory at the 2018 US Open and 1-3 defeat at the 2019 World Championships was not in the number of Unforced Errors she made (she hit 3.7 Unforced Errors per Game in the former compared with 3.5 in the latter), but rather in the number of Winning shots she could muster (9 per Game vs. 4.2).
Another way to chart the nature of a match is to consider the number of shots each player hit from mid-court and the number of shots each player volleyed. These metrics correspond to the age-old notion of ‘Controlling the T’: typically, the higher a player’s shots from mid-court and the higher their shots volleyed, the more control they exerted in the match.
The charts above show the percentage share of shots from mid court and of volleys during the analysis period. The 2020 Windy City Open, for instance – the pair’s final encounter – paints an interesting picture. Despite El Sherbini’s ultimate 3-2 triumph, the numbers point to El Welily exerting significant control of rallies, hitting both more shots from mid-court and on the volley than her opponent.
Intercept regions as defined in our analysis
One of the aims of collecting shot information such as volleys and mid-court intercepts is to be better able to predict the outcome of future matches. The pair of matches spanning the 2019 Tournament of Champions and Black Ball Open are a case in point. By scoreline, El Sherbini comfortably triumphed at the ToC, claiming the match 3-0 and clocking up 33 points to El Welily’s 25. But the mid-court and volley numbers tell a different story, El Welily hitting the lion’s share of both; put differently, the match was probably closer than the score-line suggested. Fast forward six weeks to the Black Ball Open, with El Sherbini favourite to take the crown after her recent 3-0 ‘romp’ over El Welily. Not to be, as El Welily took the contest 3-2, again with the lion’s share of mid-court control.
Not the full picture
These metrics can help refine the picture, but are limited without consideration of a player’s style of play. According to these numbers, El Welily dominated the mid-court, and had the greater share of volleys. With El Sherbini winning 6 of the 11 matches and 24 of the 43 games, these mid-court and volley metrics are clearly missing something. One aspect which helps explain this discrepancy is El Sherbini’s remarkable ability to hit Winners from deep.
El Sherbini hit half her shots from deep on the rebound (47.0% ); El Welily used the back wall every three shots (32.7%). Footage from SquashTV.
Despite hitting fewer Winning shots than El Welily in the analysis period, El Sherbini (68) hit significantly more Winners than El Welily (54) from deep. A staggering 28% of El Sherbini’s Winners came from behind the service boxes, compared with 19% for El Welily. This difference is particularly stark on the forehand: El Sherbini hit over 1 in 8 of her Winning shots from deep right, while this region produced only 1 in 13 of El Welily’s Winners.
Another, related explanation for El Sherbini’s dominance not appearing in charts of mid-court intercepts and volleys is her ability to attack with boasts from deep. While many players require good court position to dictate play, El Sherbini is able to expertly move her opponent off the T from relatively defensive positions with low, fast, two-wall boasts.
In their matches since 2017, El Sherbini hit 27 Winning shots from boasts, compared with El Welily’s 16. Footage from SquashTV.
It’s a shot she plays often. In their past 11 matches, El Sherbini (187) boasted from deep far more often than El Welily (79). As shown in the chart below, she tended to hit 5-10 forehand and backhand boasts from deep per match. El Sherbini’s numbers cluster towards the top right segment of the chart while El Welily, who boasted from deep only sparingly, clusters towards the bottom left. Both players marginally but consistently favoured deep forehand boasts over deep backhand boasts.
Only once did El Sherbini hit fewer than 12 boasts from deep; only once did El Welily hit more than 12 boasts from deep
But with this proactive play comes risks. El Sherbini may win many points from deep, but she also concedes a high number of Unforced Errors. In matches vs El Weilly since 2017, El Sherbini hit a high 42 of her 84 Unforced Errors from deep (50%); in the same matches, El Welily hit just 32 Unforced Errors from deep positions, from a total of 113 (28%). El Welily may have been the higher risk taker all-round, but from deep positions on court it was El Sherbini who played the more aggressive squash.
Taken together, El Sherbini’s high number of Winners and Unforced Errors from deep indicates where she was happy taking risks from. El Welily, by contrast, played more of her proactive squash from mid-court. In the analysis period, El Welily hit 69 Winners and 22 Unforced Errors from the forehand mid-court, compared with El Sherbini’s 40 and 12. Interestingly, the ratio of the players’ Winners to Errors is the same: for every 3 Winners El Welily and El Sherbini hit on the forehand from mid-court, they committed one Unforced Error.
The mid-court backhand tells a slightly different story. Again, El Welily (78 Winners, 36 Unforced Errors) took more risks than El Sherbini (66 Winners, 20 Unforced Errors), but the players’ relative frequency of success and failure on backhands shots from mid-court is wildly different. For every Unforced Error El Welily hit from this region, she hit 2.2 Winners; El Sherbini was considerably more efficient, hitting 3.3 Winners per Error. El Welily hit a high number of Winners on her backhand from mid-court, but the cost of these successes may have been too high.
Rally-based information
The information discussed so far – Winners, Volleys, location – has looked at shots in isolation. While this may tell us something about the manner in which the match was contested – the players’ desire to be proactive or defensive, their typical court position – a more rounded picture also considers rally-pattern information. From certain areas, what shots did each player opt to play, to where, and how frequently?
The front court battle is a prime illustration of El Sherbini and El Welily’s differing approaches. Over the course of their 11 encounters, both El Sherbini (12.3%) and El Welily (11.2%) hit a similar number of shots from advanced regions, with both players bringing the other forward every eight or nine shots. But the manner in which the players reacted to shots into the front corners differed, in particular on the backhand.
El Welily is known for her lob, but El Sherbini in fact lifted more often on the forehand
As depicted in the chart above, El Welily responded to El Sherbini’s attempts to bring her short on the backhand with an even number of counter-drops, lifts, and drives – constantly varying her options and keeping El Sherbini guessing. El Sherbini, by contrast, was more predictable: despite showing the counter-drop and lob with some regularity, she opted to hit her way out of danger on half her shots from the front left.
From all areas of the court, El Welily opted to take the pace off once every five shots (19.0%), compared with El Sherbini’s one in eight (12.3%). Footage from SquashTV.
The pair’s options from mid-court differed too. The charts below depict the percentage of shots hit to different regions of the court from the backhand mid-court. Two things in particular stand out to us. Firstly, El Sherbini’s keenness to hit cross-court: El Sherbini switched play on 47.1% of her shots from mid-left, far in excess of El Welily’s 31.1%. And secondly, El Welily’s desire to take the ball in down the line: she brought El Sherbini forward on her backhand once every five shots from mid-left, a pattern reciprocated by El Sherbini only every 7 shots.
A similar pattern played out on the forehand. El Sherbini elected to hit 60.0% percent of shots from mid-right cross court, and send El Welily to the back left every third shot. Serves excluded, and taking both forehand and backhand shots from mid-court into account, El Welily brought El Sherbini forward once every four shots; El Sherbini brought El Welily forward every six shots.
Combining shot information with point winner information
For a final analysis, let’s consider some performance metrics set against who won the point. For instance, it’s useful to know that El Welily lifted more than she counter-dropped in the front left, but did sending El Sherbini to the back bring El Welily success?
The answer is a small but significant Yes. In their last 11 encounters, El Sherbini played a total of 2,410 shots from behind the service boxes (54.1% of her shots). On points El Welily won, this percentage increases to 56.8%; on points El Sherbini won, this percentage drops to 50.7%. The same is true for El Welily, who hit 50.7% of shots from deep in the analysis period, up to 52.1% in points she lost and down to 49.0% in points she won. The percent differences might not be much, but – over 5,000 shots and 800 points – the trend is reliable, and serves as a reminder of the simple importance of court position.
To conclude, let’s take a look at rally length. It is widely acknowledged that, for all her power and skill, El Sherbini can struggle when rallies become physical. The 2019 Black Ball Open Final was an example: early in the fourth Game, El Welily constructed a brutal 32-shot rally, pushing El Sherbini from pillar to post. She won the rally and reaped the rewards, going on to win 8 of the next 9 points (with four El Sherbini Unforced Errors on the return of serve) and the 5th game.
But this observation doesn’t hold for El Sherbini and El Welily’s encounters writ large. Between 2017 and 2020, the pair contested 77 rallies over 20 shots in length. In the points immediately following these rallies, El Welily won 40 to El Sherbini’s 37. And in those points which followed rallies over 30 shots in length, El Welily won 12 to El Sherbini’s 11. It might well be a good tactic – perhaps even the best tactic against someone with no obvious weakness – but the numbers suggest El Sherbini is not as susceptible to physicality as widely believed.
In fact, the physicality narrative of El Sherbini and El Welily’s matches since 2017 is one of El Sherbini improvement. If we entertain that the 2018 British Open was an outlier, the picture is revealing: between 2017-2018, El Welily won the lengthier rallies; from 2019 onwards, it was El Sherbini who took the longer exchanges.
A suitable point to resurface from our deep dive into the contest that defined the women’s tour over the past 5 years – and a worrying note for El Sherbini’s current crop of competitors. Four time World Champion, current Number 1, still only 25 and – possibly – working to mend the chink in her armour.
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List of matches analysed for this piece:
Windy City Open 2017; El Welily won 3-1
World Championships 2016-17; El Sherbini won 3-0
El Gouna 2018; El Welily won 3-1
British Open 2018; El Sherbini won 3-0
World Series Finals 2018; El Sherbini won 3-1
US Open 2018; El Welily won 3-0
Tournament of Champions 2019; El Sherbini won 3-0
Black Ball Open 2019; El Welily won 3-2
DPD Open 2019; El Welily won 3-2
World Championships 2019; El Sherbini won 3-1
Windy City Open 2020; El Sherbini won 3-2
* Please note this analysis does not include El Welily’s 3-1 victory over El Sherbini at the 2017 World Championships in Manchester. This match is absent from their head to head record in the excellent SquashLevels, and we missed it - sorry.