Fastest Out of the Blocks: Who Starts Matches Best on the Tour?
Who would you say are the slowest starters in squash?
Karim Gawad, maybe? He’s a genius when he’s warm, but sometimes it feels like that doesn’t happen until game two. Or Ali Farag? He’s recently held the coveted World No. 1 position for 81 consecutive weeks, until Asal dethroned him at Optasia last month. Still, his sluggish starts, when they do happen, haven’t exactly flown under the radar - just watch PSA’s latest ‘Ask Me Anything’ with him!
And the fastest? Surely Paul Coll. There’s a precision to his warmup that feels almost meditative. Or Mostafa Asal? The ‘Raging Bull’ never does anything slowly. Joel Makin and Victor Crouin also come to mind: disciplined, methodical, focused.
Here’s the thing about us squash fans. We love our stories. We assume Gawad starts slow because we hear it from commentators and, let’s face it, we see it in matches too. Once that idea takes hold, confirmation bias kicks in, and we start noticing only the things that reinforce it.
We, at Cross Court Analytics, wanted to test these assumptions around who the fastest and slowest starters are on the Men’s side of the Tour. What does the data tell us?
We crunched statistics from the world’s top players, looking at a whopping 200+ matches and 800+ games, using three different metrics to define a “fast start”:
How often a player is ahead after the first 7 points of each game
How often they’re ahead after the first 7 points of each match (i.e. in the first game)
How often they win the first game
In our analysis, we define 7 points as actual points scored, rather than 7 rallies.
Let’s dive in.
Asal Storms Ahead, Gawad Lags Behind
Our first chart looks at how players start in all games - after the first 7 points have been played, how often are they ahead?
Gawad sits at the bottom of the chart, and by quite a substantial margin. In only 37% of games is Gawad ahead after seven points.
At the other end, we’ve got Asal. No surprises here. In 65% of games, he’s ahead after seven points. Oh, and when Asal’s ahead, he’s really ahead. An average lead of 3.2 points - that’s like starting the game 5–2 up!
Coll also ranks highly, closely behind Asal, suggesting that those warm-up routines are paying off. But, this is not the whole story. Look what happens if we isolate just the first game of a match...
Marwan, Momen, and Coll: Overrated Starters?
Instead of looking at how well players start, in those first 7 points of every game, let’s look solely at the first game.
Once again, Asal dominates: in 75% of matches, he’s ahead after the first 7 points of the opening game. Coll, on the other hand, slips to 6th here. He starts much stronger in games 2 to 5 than he does in game 1.
Here’s where we start scratching our heads. Yes, Gawad is still near the bottom, but now he’s got company! Marwan El Shorbagy and Tarek Momen drop below him. Yet no one ever seems to label them as poor starters! Why is that?
And what about Victor Crouin, the ‘Iron Marshall’? Despite his mental discipline and focus, he’s just 0.6% better than Gawad.
Sure, you could argue that who racks up the most early points doesn’t matter all that much — what counts is who wins the first game. Fair enough. So let’s turn to metric three: how often are players walking off with the all-important opening game?
The Beast Wakes Up
Once again, Gawad is at the bottom. Momen and Makin sit closely beside him. Coll performs below average. And Asal? Still at the top - he wins the first game in 3 out of 4 matches. He’s more than twice as likely to win the first game than Gawad!
And here's a twist: Mohamed El Shorbagy suddenly leaps up. From midtable in the first two graphs to 2nd-best at winning game one. El Shorbagy doesn’t start fast, but he wins the first game anyway. How can we understand this?
One possible explanation is that this is a testament to his mental strength - and a trait that defines all elite performers: the ability to find a way. Even when he starts slow, El Shorbagy has the tactical awareness, resilience, and grit to turn things around and win the game.*
It's also surprising to see how some other top players rank.
Farag may have reached the summit of the sport, but his early-game dominance isn’t quite what you’d expect. During El Gouna, Saurav Ghosal made an interesting observation that Farag seems to use the first game to gather information and “feel out” his opponent, like a boxer would. This begs the question: is Farag great in spite or rather, because of his slow starts…?
Makin and Crouin also consistently underperform their rivals in the early stages. Like Coll, both are known for their mental and tactical discipline. Maybe that style isn’t built for fast starts, maybe it’s built to wear opponents down! Their focus may not show up on the scoreboard early, but perhaps it pays dividends later, when others start to drift…
To reinforce this point, look at Youssef Ibrahim and Mazen Hesham - players with an unpredictable, maverick playing style. Both rank highly in all aspects of starting well. The data suggest that players like Ibrahim, Hesham, and, of course, Asal - all aggressive shot-makers - tend to start far better. Maybe “starting well” is less about discipline and more about aggression and attacking prowess. How willing are you to roll the dice once that whistle blows?
The Data Can’t Lie, But Our Intuition Can
Let’s recap.
Some things our instincts nailed. Asal is an outrageously fast starter. Gawad really does take a while to get going. El Shorbagy is The Beast.
But other instincts? Way off.
While we rightly call out Gawad, we tend to give others a pass. Momen, Crouin, and Makin barely outperform him in most metrics of good starts, yet only Gawad is singled out by commentators and fans! Coll, though solid, doesn’t quite live up to the hype when it comes to early-game performance. Meanwhile, Hesham and Ibrahim - two of the most unpredictable, chaos-loving players on tour - rank surprisingly high across all three metrics.
This is the beauty of data. It can confirm intuitions that we believe are true, and simultaneously reveal insights that would have been unseen to the naked eye.
Why This Matters
This isn’t just stats trivia. Nor is this an article written to disregard the achievements and abilities of any of the squash players mentioned. Simply by being included in this list, these players are undoubtedly great in their own right.
If we want to understand performance in elite squash - or anywhere, really - we need to get better at separating story from substance. To do this, we look at what the data actually tells us.
So, here’s the next million-dollar question:
Does a fast start matter?
We’ve identified who does and doesn’t start well, but does this make you any more likely to win games or matches?
We answer that in our next post. The results might just surprise you!
Data analysis, visualisations and content written by Dominic Long
Notes:
*If you want a great example, watch El Shorbagy’s recent match against Declan James at the Optasia Open here. El Shorbagy’s back was tight, his mind was distracted, and James was playing amazingly. At 9–7 down in game three, it looked like the match was slipping away from El Shorbagy. But somehow, El Shorbagy found a way and won the next four points, took the game, and closed the match 3–1. That’s ‘The Beast’ in action.