Risk Reward Squash
Gohar flattening a kill into the nick against El Sherbini. Footage from SquashTV.
First up, we looked at the number of Unforced Errors players make. Distinguishing between a Forced Error and an Unforced Error can be hard: as a rule of thumb, if the error was the result of a player’s poor play – and not because of their opponent’s good play – we judge it to be unforced.
First up, we looked at the number of Unforced Errors players make. Distinguishing between a Forced Error and an Unforced Error can be hard: as a rule of thumb, if the error was the result of a player’s poor play – and not because of their opponent’s good play – we judge it to be unforced.
The rate at which the men’s top 10 commit unforced errors threw up some interesting conclusions. As seen below, there appears to be two broad groups of error makers: those who make approximately 3 errors per game (Asal through to Dessouky), and those who make about 1.5 errors per game (Makin, Coll, Elias). You might call the first group ‘proactive’ squash players. These players look to dictate play on court, take risks, be aggressive. They are highly skilled shotmakers.
Unforced Error rate per Game, men’s top 10 players by rank
This contrasts with the style favoured by Coll and Makin, players who look to elongate rallies, close down their opponents’ attacking angles, and rely on high levels of fitness. These players are more ‘reactive’, and their game revolves around making few unforced errors.
Paul Coll and Joel Makin’s games are based on consistency. Footage from SquashTV.
Intriguingly, World #1 Ali Farag seems to straddle the divide between high-rate and low-rate error makers. He makes on average 2 unforced errors per game. This feels about right – he has the court coverage and retrieval skills of a reactive player, and on his day can finish rallies as elegantly as the best proactive players. Farag, on current form, is playing the best of both worlds.
Farag retrieves twice, before putting away a loose return from El Shorbagy
The women’s top 6 produced a different picture. World #2 Nouran Gohar is in a league of her own when it comes to stinginess on court, hitting just 1.4 errors per game – half an error less than her closest rivals. Gohar has had a stellar year, winning 3 of the last 5 PSA tournaments and coming runner up in both the World Championships and British Open. Underpinning these performances has been her ability to avoid the tin.
Gohar beat El Hammamy to win the 2021 US Open
Testament to how well American #1 Amanda Sobhy has been playing of late is her inclusion in second place by this metric (1.9 errors per game). Sobhy, traditionally an attacking player, is enjoying her best spell on court of late, in no small part due to her reduced error count.
Unforced Errors per game, women’s top 6 by rank
Perry joins Sherbini and Hammamy around the 2.4 errors/game mark, while French #1 Camille Serme may be disappointed to be in with this crowd. La Panthere has had a typically reliable season, chalking up 3 semi-final appearances before injury forced her away from court. But for a player whose game is built around fitness and consistency, she should be rivalling Gohar for top spot.
El Sherbini beat Gohar to win her 5th World Championship title
Winners per game brings up some equally interesting takeaways. This time, it’s World #1 Nour El Sherbini who is streets ahead of her rivals. The Warrior Princess averages a shade under 7 winners per game, almost 1 winner per game more than second placed El Hammamy.
Winners per game, women’s top 6 by rank
Sherbini has dominated the women’s scene of late, picking up her fifth World Championship earlier this year and claiming the British Open as well: her lead over her rivals both on the court and by this metric is astonishing.
On the men’s side of the tour, shotmakers Tarek Momen and Fares Desssouky lead the way with a shade under 6 winners per game: that is, for both players, winners comprise roughly two-thirds of all their points won.
Tarek Momen hitting a winner with a trademark hold and flick
Joel Makin props up the deck as the only player to average fewer than 4 winners per game in the sample of matches analysed. Makin may use the rise of the similarly resilient Coll as a template: while the Welshman was as miserly as Kiwi Paul Coll in terms of Unforced Errors (1.6 per game), he trails him by some distance when it comes to putting away rallies.
Winners per game, men’s top 10 by rank
Plotting winners and errors on the same chart allows a quick and easy comparison: those towards the top right of the chart make both more errors and more winners, while those towards the bottom left make both fewer errors and fewer winners. One thing leaps out: those men clustering towards the top right are Egyptians. Whether there is an Egyptian ‘style’ of squash is debatable. But at the top of the men’s game, there is certainly a trend: Egyptian players play with higher risk and higher reward.
Of the top men’s players, the Egyptians hit more winners and errors
Mostafa Asal, who has publicly acknowledged how much inspiration he draws from Mohamed ElShorbagy, may be pleased to see the risk/reward similarities between his game and his idol’s.
The women’s side of the game reveals a different conclusion. Sherbini (19,475 PSA points, November 2021) and Gohar (18,030) are by some distance the best two players on tour: Amanda Sobhy currently sits in 3rd on 11,470. But these winner/error numbers suggest they've got there by different routes.
El Sherbini and Gohar have reached the top with different risk-reward strategies
As seen above, Sherbini hits as many Errors as the chasing pack, but a lot more Winners. Gohar, by contrast, hits as many Winners as the chasing pack, but a lot fewer Errors. Squash has always accommodated and rewarded many approaches to the game. Sherbini and Gohar’s styles may be different, but the outcome is just as effective.
A note on Winner and Error categorisation:
No matter how you cut it, there’s a grey area between Forced and Unforced Errors. We take a few things into consideration when making this judgement call:
Was the player highly unbalanced when playing the shot?
Were they under considerable time pressure to hit the shot?
Were they moving at pace or at full stretch while hitting the shot?
If the answer to any of these is Yes, then we deem it a Forced Error. But, ultimately, PSA players would expect to return pretty much everything, regardless of the quality of shot, so if in doubt, we award an Unforced Error over a Forced Error.
When discussing Winners, we include both a player's ‘outright’ Winners and those shots which led to a Forced Error by an opponent. In both cases, a player’s good play has resulted in them winning the rally, so we group them together.