Season review: Men’s World Tour
The 2019-2020 season will always come with a COVID-shaped asterisk. But despite the forced truncation, the season just gone produced its fair share of intrigue, excitement and entertainment, from the Farag-ElShorbagy top-seed tussle to El Hammamy’s statement of intent in Cairo. In this piece, Cross Court reviews some of the numbers underpinning the men’s season on the PSA World Tour.
It comes as a surprise to many, but winning 55% of points is enough to make you the best player in the world. Throughout the season, world Number 1 Mohamed ElShorbagy won 28 of his 32 matches, the highest win percentage (87.5%) on tour; but across those matches, he won ‘just’ 1131 out of 2065 points (54.8%). Likewise, erstwhile top seed Ali Farag won 28 of 33 matches (84.9%), with a marginally higher points won percentage of 57.4%. Topping the men’s charts in this metric is New Zealander Paul Coll, winning 57.6% of the points he played across 2019-20. You don’t have to win each game comfortably – in fact, easy games on the World Tour are few and far between. 55% of points is enough to take each game 11-9 – and who wouldn’t settle for that?
The chart above shows the percentage of points won by the top 12 ranked players on the PSA World Tour in matches during the 2019-2020 season. Despite his World Number #1 status, Mohamed ElShorbagy is perhaps surprisingly down in fifth place. When watching the Beast from Alexandria, it can often feel like he is playing in 2nd gear, as games drift towards their latter stages fairly evenly. Enter ‘Beast Mode’, as El Shorbagy presses Turbo and accelerates away from his opponent.
IT’S PLEASING TO SEE THE NUMBERS REFLECT ANECDOTAL OBSERVATION
If ElShorbagy is a downwards mover when comparing rank and percentage of points won, Welshman Joel Makin is a riser. Ranked number #10 in the world, he storms in at third on the points won metric. Makin is known on tour for his strength, stamina and resilience – even if losing a game, Makin will push his opponent all the way, not so much in hope of winning the game at hand, but to increase his chances of winning subsequent games by putting mileage into his opponent’s legs.
The match-up with Diego Elias in March’s Windy City Open is a prime example: 9-3 down in Game 2, the tenacious Makin dug in, claiming 6 points before Elias could get over the line. Similarly, in Game 3, Makin was down and out at 10-4 – others might have thrown in the towel, but Makin gave Elias a scare at 10-8 before the Peruvian could close out the match. There may not have been a fourth game this time round for Makin to reap the rewards, but the strategy is a clear one. Elias was in the driving seat for most of the match, but Makin’s perseverance restricted Elias to just 34 of the 61 points won (55.7%).
While the season-long data above does not take into consideration when each point was won, it is nonetheless pleasing to see that – for ElShorbagy and Makin alike – the numbers broadly reflect anecdotal observation.
Another way to think about percentage of points won is in terms of average points difference per game. This is calculated by subtracting average points lost per game from a player’s average points won in a typical game. Throughout 2019-2020, Paul Coll and Ali Farag, at the top of the list, typically won games by an average of 2.6 points; Karim Abdel Gawad by 2.0 points; and towards the lower end of the top 10, Marwan ElShorbagy by 0.7 points. For the reasons of resilience and stamina highlighted above, it is likely that Joel Makin’s average +2.0 points per game differential comprises winning games by a typical margin, but losing games by fewer points than most.
Expanding the points won and conceded metric to players ranked in the top 50 also sheds light on the chasing pack. Last season, Indian favourite Saurav Ghosal, for instance, won points at the same rate as Mohamed ElShorbagy – 10.1 per game. This impressive stat places him fourth in the points won metric, 9 ranking places up on his world ranking of 13. But despite winning the points of firmly top 10 player, Ghosal conceded points (8.8 points per game) at a rate far higher than his ranking would suggest – placing his 35th on the World Tour in this metric. To improve his ranking, it would appear Ghosal needs to concentrate not on winning more points, but on conceding fewer.
Nathan Lake and Patrick Rooney deserve special mention for their excellent seasons on the PSA Challenger Tour
The opposite is true of 23rd rank Greg Lobban. Over the past season, Lobban typically conceded 8.1 points per game – better than some of world’s best in Diego Elias (8.2), Tarek Momen (8.2), and Mohamed ElShorbagy (8.3). However, he won the fewest points per game (8.2) of any of the world’s best 50 players. Conceding points is not an issue for the Scotsman; but to progress up the rankings, Lobban needs to up his points per game figures.
The final metric considered in this piece is the efficiency of the best players to convert points into games and games into matches. Last season, every player in the top 10 won approximately the same percentage of points – from Miguel Rodriguez’s 50.7% to Paul Coll’s 57.6%. But the difference in percentage of matches won is enormous, ranging from ElShorbagy’s 87.5% to Rodriguez’s 53.9%.
Karim Abdel Gawad was the tour’s most efficient winner, turning 69.6% of games won into 83.3% of matches won. Simon Rosner, on the other hand, had the unenviable record of turning 65.1% of games won into just 65.5% of matches won – suggesting that those matches he did win were close contests. It’s no surprise that four of the last five games the German played before lockdown went the distance.
ElShorbagy, for all his relatively low percentage of points won, is not world number 1 without reason. Over the course of 2019-2020, ElShorbagy turned 54.8% of points won (5th highest) into 74.1% of games won (2nd highest); and 74.1% of games won into an incredible 87.5% of matches won (highest on tour). He might not hang in a lost game as long as Joel Makin, or even win as many games as Paul Coll – but when it really counts, the Egyptian knows how to get across the line.
When next season is able to start – in whatever form that might take – we’ve certainly got a lot to look forward to. There’s plenty still up in the air: Will spectators be allowed in? Which countries will be able to host? How will players be affected by the extended break? One thing is for certain – the unfolding narratives of 2019-20 are still waiting to be told. Here’s hoping 2020-21 can shake off the corona-shackles.