The Raptor downs The Beast

Ali Farag came from behind in Chicago to beat compatriot Mohamed ElShorbagy and claim his second World Championship title. We pull out some data-driven observations from the gold medal clash in front of the stained glass at the University Club.

As noted by the SquashTV commentators pre-match, Farag hit the majority of his Winners from short in his semi-final victory over Tarek Momen. When ElShorbagy downed Paul Coll, by contrast, he hit the bulk of his Winners from mid-court.

Footage from SquashTV. Stats by Cross Court Analytics.

The same patterns emerged when Farag took on ElShorbagy. Farag hit over half his Winners from short, with the bulk of these from advanced left. The Beast once again dominated the mid-court Winners-wise, hitting 57.7% of his Winners from these regions.

ElShorbagy hit over half his Winners from mid-court, while the front corners were productive for Farag.

The chart above also shows that Farag hit three-quarters (73.7%) of his Winners on the backhand. The chart below shots that the majority of these were shots down the line to advanced regions. In other words, Farag had success hitting straight drops.

Farag hit 8 of his 14 backhand Winning shots as drop shots.

Combine that with a miserly Error count, and you’re well set for victory. As depicted below, Farag hit just 6 Unforced Errors across the match, well below ElShorbagy’s count of 15.

Farag averaged just 1 Unforced Error per Game in Games 2,3&4.

Both players set up the majority of their Winners from mid-court. This contrasts with the women’s final, in which El Sherbini seemed to produce Winners out of nowhere.

Both players set up their Winners from attacking positions.

From junior club players up to PSA superstars, the age-old notion of ‘control the T’ stands the test. In our data, controlling the T is reflected in the number of shots a player hits from mid-court, as well as the number of volleys they hit.

As seen below, Farag and MES hit a similar number of shots from mid-court and volleys across the match. However, the share of these shots changes dramatically when set against which player won the point.

More Volleys and more shots from mid-court = Controlling the T.

In terms of how the match changed as it went on, Game 1 saw relatively few shots from advanced regions, perhaps explained as both players settling into the final with lower risk shots to deep. But as the match progressed, both Farag and ElShorbagy became happier to take the ball in, forcing the other to hit from short.

Game 1 saw little play from the front, but Games 2,3&4 saw both players happier to take it short.

This is shown in our shot location heat-maps, as well. Note the blank canvas in front of the short line in Game 1, before this region sees more colour from Game 2 onwards.

The darker the segment, the more shots a player hit from this region.

While Shorbagy looked to slow the pace every ten shots fairly consistently throughout, Farag’s approach changed markedly in Games 2,3&4.

Farag took pace off more in those Games he won.

ElShorbagy has struggled in recent months when matches go deep. Mostafa Asal took the World Tour Finals after a 30 minute first Game, while there were signs of fatigue in MES’s semi-final win over Paul Coll in Chicago. One data-driven reflection of this fatigue is a reduction in rally length, with average shots per rally halving over the course of the final.

The rallies in Games 3&4 were half the length of those in Game 1

ElShorbagy may have reclaimed the #1 world ranking in Chicago, but a second World Championships will surely mean more to Fantastic Mr Farag.