Asal has the last laugh

Mostafa Asal and Paul Coll have been evenly matched this season.

They’ve traded 3 wins each, and even beat each other at the (round-robin) World Tour Finals.

But as in El Gouna, it was Asal, reduced to tears, who had the last laugh.

These 2 Asal wins looked very different, however. At El Gouna, Asal won with one-way traffic. Coll was passive, and Asal picked him off.

Despite the same 3-0 scoreline, played over a similar duration, their WTF final was much more closely contested. In this season finale, Coll won 26 points in defeat (El Gouna: 22). He had Game Ball in G1, and a mid-stage lead in G3.

If Coll hit to deep predictably in El Gouna, he didn’t repeat that game-plan here. At WTF, Coll took Asal short once every 13 shots in G1, up from once every 40 shots in G1 at El Gouna. This is bang in line with Coll’s tour average of a drop every 12 shots.

Coll used the counter drop a lot. From short on the backhand, Coll counter-dropped on over half of shots (54%); Asal did so on just 21% of shots. This contrasts to El Gouna, where Coll didn’t counter drop once in Game 1.

From here, Coll used the Volley follow-up in an effective combination, moving Asal round the court at speed.

One thing never changes, though: Coll’s lift. Coll slowed the pace down every 7 shots (15%); Asal every 14 shots (7%).

The World #2 would have been much happier with how this match was going. Game 1 was long, testing, and he even had Game Ball.

But what does Asal possess that Coll doesn’t? The ability to hit winners without warning, from anywhere on court.

And Asal needs no second invitation to take on a winner when the opportunity presents itself. Revealingly, Asal hit 8 of his 19 Winners in this match with Volleys (Coll just 1 of his 11).

Playing Asal, Coll knows that any lift not given enough hang time will be punished.

Add to that Asal’s (perhaps underrated) retrieval skills. For every 2 Outright Winners Asal’s opponents hit against him, Asal makes 1 Forced Error (second only in Top 10 to Tarek Momen). This is probably indicative of his ability to get a racket on lost causes.

As expertly as Asal retrieved and put away volleys, Coll also had an off night in the Error department.

Coll, usually so stingy at 1.5 errors/game, actually made more Unforced Errors (7) than his opponent here (6) - a collector’s item.

Coll makes just 1.5 errors per game, almost the lowest on tour

But what may have frustrated Coll more than the error count per se, was the nature of those errors. The Kiwi made poor errors in big moments. At 9-9 in the opening game, and again on Game Ball down, handing Asal G1 after 40 minutes of graft.

But Asal also dictated the rhythm impressively.

No doubt with El Gouna fresh in memory, Asal was initially happy to engage in long rallies. But recognising a proactive Coll and wary of physicality, Asal changed tack, drawing short, sharp exchanges.

This change is seen in rally durations at the start of Game 1 and Game 2. The first 10 rallies of G1 saw average rally length 28 shots, with 2 Winners hit. The first 10 rallies of G2 saw average rally length 11 shots, with 8 Winners hit.

Asal also has the ability to capitalise on momentum. Deficit overturned and finish line in sight, Asal won the final 4 rallies of the match with just 22 shots between them. The end of G3 was over in a flash. Coll’s hopes evaporated as quickly as his sweat off the glass floor.

2021-2022 was undoubtedly Coll’s season. Back to back British Open titles, at times looking like he wouldn’t lose another point, let alone game or match.

Yet the Kiwi finishes in WR#2, behind World Champion Ali Farag, and having lost consecutive finals to new WR#3 Mostafa Asal.

Leaner, more experienced, the ability to retrieve and hit winners. Will 2022-23 be the year of Asal?

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